The EURUSD over the last two days (almost) is trading between 1.1860 and 1.1915. The top extreme swing area is between 1.19093 and 1.19149 (see green numbered circles). That swing are goes back to March 17. On the downside, the 1.1861 to 1.18677 is the lower swing area extreme (see red numbered circles) In between sits the 200 day MA at 1.1883. The price has been chopping above and below that key MA over the last two days.
The inability to extend away from the 200 day MA, is indicative of a market that does not know what to do now that the 200 day MA has been reached. Does the bias turn more bullish or does it turn more bearish. OK. It took a 202 pips move higher in 6 days to return to that MA (from the low). The market needs a breather.
However, at some point, the 55 pips trading range is too narrow. The market traders will figure out if buying or selling is the preferred choice. The 200 day MA may be a barometer. The extremes give clues as well. The lows today and yesterday, are creating a nice floor. The price is now trying to extend back above the 200 day MA. That tilts the bias more in the favor of the buyers. Get above the high for the day, and the upper extreme will be eyed.
The battle is on. The market is unsure. A decision will ultimately be made to get the pair out of the 55 pip trading range. Patient buyers at the lower extreme are the most recent dominant trader. Can they keep it going?