US dollar stronger but off the highs. What are the charts saying now?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | us-dollar

London/European traders exit

The USD is stronger but off the highs as London/European traders exit for the weekend.  The greenback is the highest vs. the NZD (up 1.21%). It is the least high vs the JPY (up 0.31%). Versus the EUR, it is up 0.81% and is higher versus the GBP by 0.72%.  

London/European traders exit_
Technically speaking what are the bias' for the major pairs now and the risk levels in play?:

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell initially bottomed against its 200 hour moving average and swing area in the 1.17992 to 1.1805 area after the employment report and bounced.  However, dollar buyers came in on the rebound and push the price below that key support area. The high correction since breaking 1.17962 - just below the low of that swing area.  Sellers remain in control.  We currently trade at 1.1779.  The low for the day reached 1.17545.

EURUSD
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD in the London morning session fell below its swing area in the 1.3104 to 1.3110 area and the 100 hour moving average at 1.3098.  After the employment data, the price did crack back up toward that area, and found sellers. Those sellers took the price below its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below) and down to another swing area at the 1.3003 to 1.3012 area.  Buyers came in that area and the price rebounded back up to the 200 hour moving average where sellers have put a lid on it.  That is the risk level for shorts now. Stay below the 200 hour moving average keeps the bears in control.  Move below the 1.3000 area, and sellers gain more control with 1.2980 low for the week as the next target. 

GBPUSD
USDJPY: The USDJPY traded above and below its 100 hour moving average before and after the better-than-expected US jobs data. However, as the dollar started to move higher, so did the USDJPY.  It moved up to the swing high level from July 31 (last Friday's high) and found sellers against that level. 

USDJPY on the hourly
Looking at the daily chart, the 105.978 to 106.067 were lows from May and June as well.  So it is and remains a key area (see daily chart below). 

USDJPY on the daily
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is down sharply today and is just below the NZD as the 2nd weakest currency of the day. The pair got going lower in the Asian session when the price reached new week highs but only 2 pips. That failure turned buyers and sellers especially ahead of the key employment data.

AUDUSD

The run higher in the dollar after the employment data initially took the pair down to its 200 hour moving average (green line). The price bounced but stayed below what was some swing lows from August 5 and August 6 at 0.71825, and near the 100 hour moving average at 0.7178. Staying below that area and the sellers in control (risk for shorts now). We are currently back below the 200 hour moving average at 0.71705 as well. That is a close risk for traders now.

NZDUSD: As mentioned above,  the NZD is the weakest of the majors today.  Like the AUDUSD, in the Asian session it stalled against a swing high area between 0.6688 and 0.66925.  On the move lower (USD buying), the price has broken below the 200 hour moving average and 100 hour moving average at 0.66445 and 0.66379 (bearish), and has extended below a swing low area 0.6613 and 0.66195 (lower yellow area). That puts the price in the extreme area (outside the value area) that has defined the range since July 21.  Most of the trading has been between 0.66134 and 0.6692.  

Stay below the lower swing area (i.e. below 0.66195 now) keeps the sellers in control (risk for shorts). The low from Tuesday and Monday at 0.6588 and 0.6574 are the next hurdles to get to and through now for the pair. 

NZDUSD
USDCAD: The USDCAD fell after the US and Canada jobs data but the break of the 100 hour moving average at 1.3325 area (blue line) was quickly reversed.  The dollar buying since then has pushed the price above a swing area between 1.3369  to 1.33766. The last 4 hours have remained above that area (see red numbered circles and yellow area).  That is close risk for longs now.  Stay above and the buyers remain in control.  A more conservative risk defining level would be the 200 hour MA at 1.33594. 

USDCAD
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