USDCAD backs off after move above 61.8% fails

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Seeing some upside apprehension

The USDCAD trended higher today with gains starting in the Asian session after the price moved above its 100 hour MA (blue line).  

Momentum gathered pace as the commodity currencies all got hit.  The move stalled initially around the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.4003 currently), but subsequently was able to extend higher. The 61.8% retracement at him 1.40352 became the next hurdle. The 1st test stalled the rally. After tracing back down toward the 1.4000 level, the price was able to extend above the 61.8% retracement level to a day high of 1.40477.  However there has been a return back below the retracement line.  

Seeing some upside apprehension
Will a failure above the 61.8%  lead to a shift from behind the selling? 

The week is ticking toward the close and Europe (UK as a holiday on Monday as does the US), so anything can happen. However, stay below the 61.8% should see more downside probing.  Having said that, the move above the 1.4000 level, the 50% retracement , the 200 hour moving average  and swing area, was an important break.  As a result I would expect on any corrective move lower, that buyers lean against that 1.4000 area.  

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