USDCAD bounces back toward 200 hour MA

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Down and up price action today

The USDCAD is in an up and down range today. The initial move in the Asian session took the price up to test its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below).  Sellers leaned against that moving average line and pushed the price back down.

Down and up price action today
The low today stalled just ahead of the low from yesterday near 1.2525. That level was a ceiling on July 13 and July 14 before trading above and below the level on July 15. Also on July 15, the price based just ahead of that level, and that started the run toward the July high reached on Monday at 1.28066 (see red numbered circles). The holding of that level yesterday, reestablished the level as a support target. 

Since peaking on Monday, the price of the USDCAD has moved steadily lower help by the rise in crude oil.  In the process, the technicals tilted more to the downside for the pair (higher CAD) helped by breaks of the 100 hour MA (at 1.26646 currently), the 200 day moving average (at 1.26184 currently) and the aforementioned 200 hour moving average (at 1.2590 currently). 

If the price can now move back above the 1.2590 level, the traders would look back toward the 200 day moving average, and potentially start to reverse the declines.   Hold near the 200 hour MA, and the sellers remain more in control.   Decision time for the buyers and sellers.

Is there any clues from crude oil?

Looking at the hourly chart of crude oil (see chart below), it  is currently trading at $70.78. That is off the high price of $71.14 today, but still above the psychologically important $70 level.  

Technically, there is some key overhead resistance that could be an influence.  At the high today, the price of crude oil moved to test the 50% AND the 200 hour moving average near $71.27.  The combination of those technical level, tends to give traders cause for pause.  That is what we are seeing in the market now and it could have a knock on impact on the USDCAD.  Be aware

Crude oil on the hourly chart
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