The USDCAD has dipped back below the 100/200 hour MAs at 1.25784 and 1.25725. That is tilting the bias more to the downside technically.
The price action has seen the price move up and down going back to March 23. The high over that period reached 1.2646 on March 30. The low was at 1.25013 (on Monday). Most of the trading has occurred between 1.25387 to 1.26282 (See red box). Yesterday, the price tried to extend above the higher swing area, only to fail quickly (twice). Today, the high stalled in that swing area (between 1.26236 and 1.26282) and rotated back to the downside. Sellers took control.
The move back below the MAs tilts the bias lower. That is nothing new over the last 7 days as the market waffles up and down. Trader will want to see the price stay below those MAs now and look toward the lower swing area at 1.25387 to 1.25474. Get below that, and the pair is working into the lower extreme area (down to 1.2501) with higher support at 1.25203 to 1.25273.
The gains in the CAD do come as Canada reenters some lockdowns as a result of new variants and rising cases. That may keep the pedal to the metal for the BOC. That is a bit counterintuitive. However, it may be that the market is thinking ahead and that an ounce of prevention will pay off down the road.
IN any case, staying below the MAs will be an important 'tell' for defining the technical bias. So listen to the market.