USDCAD falls to 38.2% retracement

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Fall continues for the pair

The USDCAD failed at it's attempt to extend on a new high and get above a trend line on the daily chart.  The pair's run higher also failed to reach it's 100 day MA at 1.34406  (blue line). All those failures gave sellers some ammunition and the price moved lower. The range today is now 116 pips. That is well above the 87 pip average range seen over the last month of trading (around 22 days).  

Fundamentally, a move into the pair is being helped by a lower USD (lower stocks leading to risk on flows), and higher oil prices.  The price of crude oil just pushed above $40 and trades at $40.27. The low early in the session reached $38.68.  The prices currently up 2.37% on the day.

Fall continues for the pair
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair has just moved to new session lows over the last hour, and in the process is extending below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 16 low at 1.33076. Stay below and the pair will start to look toward the swing lows from September 22 and September 23 from last week's trading. Those levels come in at 1.3293 and 1.32827.

Close risk for sellers looking for more downside is now up at 1.33238.

USDCAD on the hourly chart

Can dip buyers get involved?  

The ranges extended (116 pips vs. 87 pip average) but it would take a move and momentum above the 38.2% retracement at 1.33076 absent a move to the aforementioned swing low levels at 1.3293 and 1.328257. I would expect that those levels should attract more buying interest.

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