USDCAD falls to new session lows and back below its 100 day moving average

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

This is the 2nd look below its 100 day moving average today

The Bank of Canada was a little more hawkish in their statement and as a result the Canadian dollar has gotten stronger (USDCAD weaker).

This is the 2nd look below its 100 day moving average today_
Looking at the 4 hour chart, the price has recently moved to new session lows and in the process cracked back below its 100 day moving average at 1.32239.  Earlier today shortly after the decision, the price did break down to a low price of 1.32182. That was just above the 38.2% retracement at 1.32179. The price moved back higher to 1.3233 before stalling and resuming a more downward bias.

Now that the price has rebroken the 100 day moving average at 1.32239, the bears are looking for more.

On the downside the next target area comes in at 1.32076 – 1.32118 (see yellow area and red numbered circles). That area was home to some swing levels going back to October and November. Admittedly in November the price fell below that yellow area only to find support against its 200 hour moving average (green lower line at 1.31998).   That 200 hour moving average would be another target on the downside.  

Risk is now the 100 day moving average. On the 2nd break I would not expect that sellers would like to see the price move back above that level.

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