WTI key level around the $51.00 level
The USDCAD is turning lower today and the price of WTI crude oil is a contributor to the move.
The price of Crude oil is back up today and trades near the high level of $51.77. Yesterday, the price fell after weekly inventory data showed a large build of inventories BUT the price still managed to close above key support at the $51.00 area. The 50% of the range since the end of February and the 100 day MA come in with cents of the $51.00 level (see chart)
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the price of Crude held above a trend line support line AND the 100 hour MA on the move to the low today. So although the price fell below the key $51.00 level, other support on the hourly chart held.
For the USDCAD the pair has been reacting a little more to the price of oil of late.The price high today was when oil was near the lows. The pair at the peak also ran into resistance against topside trend line.
Now, with oil near the highs, the price has wandered back lower. The pair did trade to the 50% of the range since Friday's peak at 1.3398 (call it 1.3400). That natural level of support has stalled the fall. On a break below, we should see traders targeting the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3361 level
So although we are getting help from oil, we are also seeing some reaction to the technicals against trend line and the 50%.. Look for traders to keep an eye on each for bullish/bearish trading clues.
Be aware that tomorrow not only will the market get the key US employment report, but we will also get the Canadian employment situation for the month of March. The expectations is for the net change in employment to rise by 5.7K vs 15.3K last month. The Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.7% from 6.6%. Typically, the USDCAD will follow the moves of the USD when both are released on the same day. The largest potential comes when they run counter to each other (and counter to estimates).
