Box 1.2814 to 1.2947
The USDCAD fell outside a box that confined the range going back to March 21 in trading yesterday. The catalyst was comments that Trump wanted a NAFTA deal as early as next week. That might be a bit ambitious, but it caught the markets attention, and the loonie was bid up (the USDCAD moved lower).
Today, there was a corrective move higher - perhaps partly to do with expectations that it might take longer than thought. The price moved back "into the box".
Recent comments from the new White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow that "it is quite possible we will get a NAFTA deal soon", has the pair retesting life outside the box ( below 1.2814).
Key crossroad technically for the pair. Get and stay below and we should see a move back toward the swing lows from yesterday/earlier today. If the price trades back above 1.2824, the waters become muddy again on the failure.