1.3160 is the next hurdle if the low is in place
The USDCAD tumbled yesterday, but found support buyers at the 200 day MA.
Yesterday in the post titled "Tough to pick a bottom, but USDCAD tests a key area", I wrote:
It is tough to pick a bottom, but the USDCAD is testing the 200 daay MA and 61.8% in the 1.3113-18 area. Hold would be good for a bounce. Break and stops triggered.
On a bounce the 1.31599 would be eyed (swing low from December). The low from earlier this year reached 1.3179.
The price moved up to the 1.3160 level yesterday off the bounce and then moved back down today to test the 200 day MA for the second time. The price bounced to 1.3164 (the high for the day so far (see hourly chart below).
Now the price is pushing back toward the 1.3160 level again (swing low from December). The buyers have another chance to push higher now that there have been two tests of the key 200 day MA.
What do I want to see?
A move above the 1.3160 level would be step one. Above that the 38.2% of the move down from the Tuesday high this week comes in at 1.3181. Above that and the KEY 100 day MA looms at 1.31966. Those are the levels to get through, IF the low is in place.
What do longs NOT want to see in the short term?
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the ups and downs has seen the price trade above and below the 100 and 200 bar MA (at 1.3137-44 respectively). A trend line connnecting lows comes in at 1.31305. A move below each of those levels will weaken the idea that "the low is in place".