USD/CAD trades at the highs for the day near 1.3313

USD/CAD D1 15-02

The greenback is pushing gains against the likes of the euro, swissie and loonie to start the morning and we're seeing USD/CAD stay underpinned above the 1.3300 handle with buyers searching for an extension to the upside move yesterday.

Despite a poor retail sales report from the US, USD/CAD actually climbed to a high of 1.3340 as Canadian manufacturing sales surprisingly declined for a third month running. That saw price broke near-term resistance levels that were highlighted yesterday here.

Buyers remain in near-term control now but are still unable to find a way past swing region resistance from around the mid-November highs at 1.3318-30. That continues to keep a lid on the upside move in the pair since trading last week.

For trading over the next few sessions, the pair will be very much dictated by the technical playbook in my view.

Buyers will have to secure a daily break above the 1.3318-30 swing region level to retest the 76.4 retracement level @ 1.3384. Meanwhile, sellers will firstly have to break below the key hourly moving averages seen @ 1.3268 and 1.3247 currently. But more importantly, they will have to find a way past the 100-day MA (red line) @ 1.3240.

Only a break below that will further justify a move to the downside, otherwise I'd argue that the upside momentum remains very much intact in the long-run.

As for fundamentals, it's all about US-China trade talks and risk optimism/pessimism right now so look towards that to drive sentiment in the pair and oil over the next few days. Much like other risk assets, positive headlines could help spur a knee-jerk jump in the loonie and oil but I would expect that to be faded thereafter.