Trying to stay above 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart.

The USDCAD has moved above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 1.3370. That is nothing new. We have seen moves above that MA on a number of occasions over the last few weeks. What we have not seen is two consecutive 4-hour bars above the MA line over the last few weeks. We are in the midst of the 2nd bar above the MA line. So buyers are keeping control.

That is the bullish news. The hurdles ahead are putting some counter bullish pressure.

  1. The 50% of the move down from the March 9th high comes in at 1.33983. The high has stalled at 1.3399
  2. The highs from the last two weeks at 1.3408-14 are another hurdle that needs to be broken to keep the buyers/bulls happy.

Looking at the 5- minute chart you can see the ceiling that is developing. Yes, the price is remaining near the high but there is work to do at that 1.3400 level.

What would poor water on the bullish fire today? Looking at the chart the 100 bar MA (blue line) has done a good job holding support once the bulls got going. The consolidation at the high is giving the 100 bar MA time to catch up. It is still below at 1.33717 but it is moving higher. If the price goes below that line, it may not kill the rally, but it could dampen some of the bullish flames from today's price and technical action.

Is it ok to lean against the overhead resistance at 1.3400 area/50% retracement? Sure. That is what traders are doing, but I would expect stops on a break above. We have a ceiling there but we are also showing buyers in the price action today.