Low from Friday is holding support at 1.2335. 100 hour moving average at 1.2363 is stalling the rally
The USDCAD is trading in a narrow 33 pip trading range today. The average over the last month is around 87 pips. There is room to roam.
What is stalling the market?
Technically looking at the hourly chart, the pair is trading near it's cycle lows and lowest levels since early July. The July low reached 1.2302. The low price yesterday reached 1.23105.
The bounce off the low yesterday did move toward its falling 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above), but found early sellers against that level. The 100 hour moving averages currently at 1.2363 (blue line in the chart above)
In trading today, the range has been confined by that 100 hour moving average on the topside. On the downside, the swing low from Friday's trade at 1.23353 is stalling the fall. There are 4 hourly bars that reached that level today, and found buyers against the level. The current price is trading between those levels at 1.2345.
Needless to say something has to give at some point. The technical levels should lead the way.
If the 1.2335 level is broken, and the price is able to get below 1.23105 and the swing low from July at 1.2302, it would open up the door for further momentum to the downside.
Conversely, a break above the 100 hour moving average and staying above would have traders looking to take back some of the technical levels on the topside including the 38.2% retracement of the last move lower at 1.23819 (that is the MINIMUM retracement target), the 50% of the same move comes in at 1.24039 (AGAIN, a MINIMUM retracement target), and more importantly the falling 200 hour moving average at 1.2413 (green line in the chart above).
The price of the USDCAD has not traded above its 200 hour moving average since October 1 The price has not traded above its 100 hour moving average since October 6.
The sellers remain in control below the 100 hour moving average. That is the trend, but there is some support below that is helping to stall the fall.
