Back above the 200 day MA

On Friday, the USDCAD fell below the 200 day MA (green line at 1.3118) after holding on Wednesday and Thursday. The pair closed below that key MA for the first time since October 3rd, 2018. PS. the fal below the 200 day MA was also a fall below the 61.8% of the move up from the October 2018 low (at the same level).

Back above the 200 day MA

The price moved back above that MA in the last hour or so (see hourly chart below), and it puts into question the break. A one day break is not what the bearish doctor ordered. In fact, it can turn the beat around for the pair.

It still is step one for buyers. They can now lean against the 200 day MA as a risk defining level. Stay above is more bullish.

What would give buyers more confidence, is if the price can get above the 38.2% of the move down from last week's highs at 1.31503. A even bettter barometer for the bulls, would be a break above the 100 hour MA at 1.31619 (blue line on the chart below). The price cracked below that MA on January 25th and stayed below since that time (with a test at the highs last week).

The price  of the USDCAD has key resistance at the 100 hour MA now.