USDCHF sellers trying to make a play
The USDCHF moved and stayed above until the US employment report on Friday sent the dollar lower (and with it the USDCHF).
The move lower on Friday did take the price back below its 100 hour moving average for the 1st time since January 29 (blue line in the chart above), but the fall stalled near lows from Thursday and just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January 29 low (the start of the trend higher to Friday's high).
Today, the pair has chopped higher, but was able to breach the 100 day moving average at 0.90145. The high price reached up toward a swing low on Friday at 0.9019, but has since fallen, and move back below the 100 day moving average in the process.
The pair has now moved back below its 100 hour moving average at 0.90034. Stay below that moving average keeps the bears more in control.
On the downside, the 38.2% retracement area near 0.89794 will be the next key target.
Although the pair has trended higher since January 29, and the correction has so far stayed above the 38.2% retracement, there area some clues from sellers (can't get back above the 100 day MA/moving back below the 100 hour MA), that suggest they are making a play to wrestle more control back from the buyers. If the aforementioned 38.2% retracement, can be broken, that probe for control will have traders looking toward the 50% and rising 200 hour moving average near 0.89592.
Conversely if the 100 hour moving average and 100 day MA are rebroke, all bets are off on the idea for more seller dominance (and we should see a retest of the highs from Friday).
