USDCHF stalls at 200 hour MA. Backs off.

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

The 200 hour MA comes in at 0.9695

The USDCHF has recovered higher in trading today. The move higher actually began yesterday after the pair reached the lowest level since the week of September 23, 2018. The low price extended to 0.96124. By the end of the day the price retraced the decline from yesterday (from the high) and closed near the session highs. An intraday move above a topside trend line on the hourly chart helped to shift the bias back higher (see chart below).  

The 200 hour MA comes in at 0.9695

Today the price action has continued the upward bias. In the process the 100 hour moving average (blue line) at 0.9662 currently was broken. However when the price reached it's 200 hour moving average (green line) at 0.96953, sellers were waiting to lean against the level,  and the price rise stalled.  

For the week, the pairs decline was helped by news on Tuesday that the US had put Switzerland on the watchlist for currency manipulators.  Switzerland denied that distinction, but after a run back higher toward the 200 hour moving average on Tuesday, the price action reversed and trundled to the downside.  

The correction back higher over the last day and 1/2, did take the price back above the 50% retracement of the move down from last Friday's high at 0.96869. However the price is currently trading back below that midpoint level.

I would expect for the rest the day, that the price settles between its 100 hour moving average below at 0.96662 and 200 hour moving average above at 0.96953 (we currently trade at 0.9677 between those levels).  That will leave next week's price action to determine more bullish or more bearish bearish.  Move above the 200 hour moving average and the buyers take more control.  Move below the 100 hour moving average and sellers are more in control. 


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