USDCHF tries life above the 100 hour MA again. Can it hold above this time?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

USDCHF hasn't been above the 200 hour MA since April 5th 

The USDCHF has been trending lower in April with the high set on April 1 at 0.9472. The low was reached on Monday at 0.91284. 

USDCHF hasn't been above the 200 hour MA since April 5th 
The price has closed higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the price action has been choppy in the process.  Today, the price is trading near unchanged after erasing the earlier declines, but has come off the highs for the day at 0.9188.

The move higher did extend back above the falling 100 hour MA at 0.91659 (currently - see blue line in the chart above).  The price has made attempts above the 100 hour MA on Apriil 15, April 16 and again yesterday.  Each of those breaks failed. 

The 200 hour MA (green line) has not been broken on any of the moves/breaks.  Getting above that MA is an important confirmation for a rebound off a trend move.  Failure to get above that MA is not showing much confidence (or confirmation) of the reversal or the buyers strength.   

So with the move above the 100 hour MA being the 4th in 6 days, traders will want to see:
  • The price stay above the 100 hour MA, AND
  • Eventually get and stay above the 200 hour MA (at 0.91941 currently).
Failure to do that would keep the sellers more in control.  

PS the 200 hour MA is joined by a falling trendline connecting highs from April 8 and April 15, increasing that levels importance going forward.  it is also near the high from yesterday at 0.9195.  

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