The 20 pip range from Monday has seen an extension higher today.
Recall from yesterday, the range for the entire day for the USDJPY was only 20 pips. That ain't a lot. The average range over the last 22 days (about a month) is about 46 pips.
Today, the ranges around normal at 44 pips. The low for the day runs in the 1st hour of trading (and likely a liquidity thing where the bid/ask widened). After that worked it's way out, the price was able to extend above a swing area between 105.487 and 105.51. The pair also moved above its 200 hour moving average (currently at 105.485 - see green line).
The last few hours have seen an extension up to recent swing areas going back to September 29. The 1st comes between 105.72 and 105.74. The 2nd is between 105.788 and 105.804. The high price has reached 105.74 so far. We currently trade at 105.681.
With the range near the average of the last 22 days, and resistance from the swing area being tested, there is some stall. However the buyers are making a play. The sellers have to take back more control. They can do that against the swing areas above (lean against those levels with stops above). On the downside, getting below the October 13 high at 105.622 and the earlier high from the Asian session 105.61 would give sellers some additional confidence intraday. Ultimately a move below the 200 hour moving average at 105.485 would be a bigger confidence booster for sellers.
On the topside get above the 105.804 and traders will start to look toward the highs from October 7, October 8 and October 9 between 105.945 and 106.102
