The pair looks set for a test to determine if we're set for a return of a bearish bias
Failure to firmly break above the 50.0 retracement level @ 109.93 and the 110.00 figure level saw buyers face some exhaustion and so far it is continuing into the new week. The pair is now trading near the lows at 108.89, with the declines believed to be haven buying ahead of Trump's decision on Iran later - according to Bloomberg sources.
Nonetheless, that is quite expected with the amount of uncertainty (both in terms of Trump's decision as well as Iran's possible retaliatory measures against the US) surrounding the situation. It's not exactly clash of the titans, but it is still geopolitics.
In terms of levels to look out for, the key one for the pair is the 100-day MA (red line) @ 108.65. Friday's attempt to move below it failed, but the trend lower is still continuing at the moment so that will be one to watch out for. A break below would present a fresh bearish bias, and the pair will be set to move back towards 108.00 and below again.
There isn't any key option expiries on the board today for the pair so that isn't going to be much of a factor. There are real money bids reported near 108.50 (near the 24 April low) though, so be wary of that level for support too. As for offers, they're currently reported near 109.40 - coinciding with yesterday's high.
But the key risk item to look out for will be Trump's decision on Iran, so make sure you keep an eye out on that.
