USDJPY down and up today and runs into topside resistance

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

50% and swing congestion stalls the move higher

The USDJPY moved lower earlier, then rebounded and erased the declines (and then some). In the process, the price has been able to move back above its 200 hour moving average at 107.331 (green line) and a downward sloping trendline currently at 1.07346. The price is trading above and below those levels in the current hourly bar.

50% and swing congestion stalls the move higher
Although higher on the day, the pair did run into some overhead resistance defined by the 50% retracement at 107.394, and a swing congestion area (see red numbered circles and yellow area) between the 50% retracement and the 107.440.  

With the overhead resistance causing a stall, but the bullishness from the break of the 200 hour moving average/trendline, traders are mulling what to do from here. 

Stocks have erased earlier gains and trade lower now with the NASDAQ index down over -100 points (it was up around 50-60 points at the start of the session). The NASDAQ index shed -226 points yesterday. 

Lower stocks can send the USDJPY either way.  More recently, lower stocks have led to a higher dollar.  However lower stocks can also lead to a flight into the "relative safety of the JPY".  

Regardless of what story is written, the price action will write that story.  Get above the 107.44 would be more bullish.  Move below the 200 hour MA with more momentum, would be more bearish intraday.



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