March 31 high comes in at 110.96
The USDJPY moved to a new high for 2021 earlier today after breaking above the March 31 high of 110.96. The high price today reached 111.099.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the move above the March 31 high at 110.96 lasted for about an hour or so before failing and moving back to the downside. The corrective high price since the break lower reached 110.909 - about 5 pips below that old high. The current price is trading around 110.734. That takes the price below the June 17 high of 110.818.
Going forward if the price can stay below the June 17 high at 110.818, the sellers remain in control intraday. The next target on the downside would be a swing area between 110.525 and 110.579 (see red numbered circles and yellow area). A move below that level would next target the dual technical support defined by the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January low. That level comes in at 110.367.
SUMMARY: The buyers had their shot one the price moved above the 2021 high at 110.96. They failed. The move back below the June 17 highs now close risk. Stay below is more bearish. The 100 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement at 110.367 is a key downside target now. Closer target support is centered around the 110.525 to 11. 0.579