Can the sellers keep the selling going today?
The USDJPY, in the early NY session, has now fallen below a floor from last week's trading between 109.32 and 109.35 (see red numbered circles). That floor from last week was a ceiling going back to May 17 through May 19th, before moving above on May 27.
That break was previewed by the holding of the 200 hour moving average (green line) on the last push higher in the early London session. Stay below that 200 hour moving average was an early clue that the sellers were taking a stand.
If the sellers are to remain in control, getting below the 61.8% retracement of the trading range since May 25 low at 109.23 becomes the next target. Below that then traders will look toward another swing area between 109.024 and 109.074.
Looking at the hourly chart going back to May 17, the pair has two halves. The first 1/2 was from May 17 to May 27, and was between 108.553 and 109.346. The second 1/2 is from 109.322 to 110.324. The dip back into the lower 1/2 is a tilt to the downside. The question is, "Can the sellers keep the push going". The close risk is a move back into the upper box. A more conservative stop for sellers looking for more, is the actual 50% of the total range since May 25 at 109.439.
