The USDJPY has fallen to a new session low at 109.257. The US stock futures have dipped since the North American traders enter, but our still leaning for a higher opening with the Dow up 198 points and the NASDAQ index up 72 points. There is still a lot of nervousness in the equity markets despite the gains in premarket trading (the pattern is to open higher and moved lower of late).
The USDJPY did see a rebound in the Asian session which took the price back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line). Recall from yesterday, the corrective move in the early New York session found sellers against that moving average level and although traders initially leaned against the level on the first rise today, the second was able to extend above.
That is the good news. The not so good news is that the gains above that moving average were short-lived and the price declines resumed over the last eight or so trading hours.
The move to the downside has now cracked below the low from yesterday which came in at 109.317. The next targets comes in at the low from last Thursday at 109.204. The low price from last Wednesday bottomed at 109.11. That also was swing lows going back to August 16 and August 17 (triple bottom at 109.110).
Needless to say that triple bottom level is a key level for both buyers and sellers. A break below would increase the bearish bias. Holding the level on a test, and buyers will have hope for a another bounce to the upside.
Ultimately however, the price action above the 100 hour moving average was telling today. It would take a move back above that moving average level (and stay above) to give the buyers more comfort (and more control). Absent that and the sellers are holding the strongest hand.