USD/JPY hangs on above 104.00 but sellers still keep near-term control for now

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | usdjpy

USD/JPY trade a little lower at 104.40 levels currently

USD/JPY D1 22-09
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The pair looked almost set for a break under 104.00 yesterday before a timely bid came through near the figure level to push the pair all the way back up to 104.90.

Since then, the pair is settling in a bit of a limbo between 104.50 to 104.75 as sellers are more cautious awaiting the return of Japanese traders tomorrow - not to mention the jolt yesterday could also be due to Japanese officials intervening.

That said, despite the close above the 31 July low (which remains a key supportive level on the daily chart), sellers are still maintaining near-term control:

USD/JPY H1 22-09
The push higher is failing to take out the 100-hour MA (red line), so the near-term bias is still keeping more bearish for now.

For buyers, they must break above that to wrestle back more momentum before chasing a break back above the 105.00 handle.

The dollar was off to a better start earlier today but has seen that early momentum fizzle as equities sentiment looks to be recovering.

The dollar play is so far overriding the risk sentiment part of the equation but if stocks rally, just be mindful that the yen could lose some ground as well.

But in the context of the risk/dollar trade so far this week, this is also part of the 'bend but don't break' group which also includes EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold.

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