Pair is running away from the 100 day MA
On Friday of last week, the USDJPY moved above the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above). That moving average is currently at 104.38. The price since breaking has extended up to 105.06. The the current price is at 104.98. The pair is also working on its 5th consecutive up day since Wednesdays a low at 103.58. The close yesterday came in at 104.907.
Looking at the daily chart above, the pair has moved into a swing area between 104.936 and 105.084. If the buyers are to take more control, getting above that area will be another bullish clue (and hurdle). The 38.2% retracement at 105.358 and falling 200 day moving average 105.592 remain key targets for buyers/bulls. The USDJPY has not traded above its 200 day moving average since June 9, 2020. If the buyers are to take more control from this longer-term chart, getting above both the 38.2% retracement and the 200 day moving average is essential. Otherwise, this is just a plain-vanilla correction in a bearish move to the downside.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the last run to the upside remains above a upward sloping trend line currently at 104.88. There also is a ceiling/floor developed between 104.82 and 104.838. If the sellers are to take more control in the shorter-term, getting below that area should lead to further downside probing. Remember as well that it would also take the price below the close from yesterday at 104.907 (breaking the 4-day up streak if it remains below). The next downside targets would come in at retracement levels of the move up from the Thursday low at 104.720 and 104.615. The rising 100 hour moving average at 104.574 is also a downside target on more weakness.
SUMMARY: in summary, the daily chart is providing some resistance at 105.084. Get above that level would have traders next targeting the 38.2% retracement and 200 day moving average (105.358 and 105.592 respectively).
On the downside, the hourly chart is a focus with a upward sloping trendline at 104.88 and a swing area down to 104.82 the close support levels. Until those levels can be broken, the buyers still hold the advantage. Remember that. However, a move below should also lead to more selling as momentum slows and traders look to correct some of the gains.
