USD/JPY inches lower as risk gradually turns softer

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | usdjpy

USD/JPY is threatening a break of its 200-hour moving average again

USD/JPY H1 25-02
Sellers attempted to break that level in overnight trading, but buyers held on to prevent a daily close below the 61.8 retracement level @ 110.64. However, the rebound since then was short-lived and met resistance near 111.00.

Now, price is starting to fall back below the 200-hour MA (blue line) as we see sellers threaten to seize back near-term control on the day.

Notably, this is all coming as we see risk gradually turn softer in the market with European equities paring gains and bond yields also turning flat on the session now.

After the recent divergence, it looks like yen crosses are starting to resume some normality but given where Treasury yields are sitting, there is perhaps more pain to come:

Although I would argue that the state of the Japanese economy and the present coronavirus risks to Japan would mean striking a balance somewhere in between the recent divergence and a return back to the nearly perfect correlation.

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