USDJPY reaches - and now breaks - its 200 hour MA

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

After trading to highest level since May 30

The USDJPY traded to the highest level since May 30 early in the day after China PMI data was better and US Thanksgiving/Black Friday sales were stronger than expectations.  

After trading to highest level since May 30

Then Pres. Trump tweeted about raising tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian steel and the USDJPY started to fall.  Data in the US was much weaker than expectations and more bearishness toward a US China deal also weighed on sentiment in the USD.

Technically,the bullish picture started to show weakness.

  • THe price fell below the 100 hour moving average at 109.398. 
  • The price fell below a swing area 109.325-39.
  • The price fell below swing area at 109.137-207 and the 38.2% retracement at 109.168.
Currently, the price is testing- well now breaking - the 200 hour moving average at 109.047.   The 50% retracement of the move up from November 21 comes in at 108.997.  Below that and the 200 day moving average at 108.882 will be eyed.

It is a decent move to the downside.  However putting things into perspective, the pair was at these levels just last Tuesday. 

Looking at the daily chart below, the price move above the 200 day moving average over the last month has been met with some apprehension. Yes there has been breaks to the upside but the momentum has not necessarily been all that bullish. A move back below the 200 day moving average would tilt the bias more to the downside.

USDJPY on the daily chart

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