This time coming after a rejection from the topside
Yesterday's high tested the resistance at the 61.8 retracement level and the 2 February high near 110.85 and buyers failed to hold a break above that. The daily close stayed above the 200-day MA (blue line) but trading today sees the pair fall below that and now is testing the 110.00 handle.
For buyers, it's all about holding above the 200-day MA @ 110.22 today. A close below that would break the bullish bias, and it will give more incentive for sellers to drive the pair lower.
There is relatively large expiries at the figure level today so expect that to come into play as well in anchoring the pair and also providing support.
As for risk events, the key one will be the US retail sales data due at 1230 GMT that will drive the dollar side of the equation. Keep an eye out on yields as well.
But apart from risk events, I would say the large expiries at 110.00 would do well to anchor the pair around current levels and for sellers, any downside move below the figure level upon roll off of the expiries will be a good start for further downside moves.
Otherwise, a hold above the 110.00 and the 200-day MA will be a win for buyers - especially the latter - and we could revisit the 110.85 resistance level again over the next few sessions. But as mentioned, watch out for the key event above.
