Yesterday, the pair was up testing the key 100 day MA and found sellers.

Just yesterday, the USDJPY extended to the highest level since July 8, and in the process moved above a swing area at 107.414 to 107.44. The next target was the 100 day moving average at 107.502. The price moved up to 107.526 and quickly rotated back to the downside. The high was in place.

Yesterday, the pair was up testing the key 100 day MA and found sellers.

Today, after testing the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines) in the Asian session and bouncing, the sellers returned in the London morning session. In the New York session, the price was able to crack not only the 100 and 200 hour moving averages around the 107.13 area, but also a rising trend line near the same level (see green numbered circles). That break turned any dip buyers into sellers. The price has extended to a session low at 106.75 so far.

The move to the downside has taken the price toward the lower extremes from July. The area between 106.629 and 106.705 is home to swing levels going back to July 10 and July 15. It will take a move below that area to open up the door for further downside (if the price can stay below).

Close risk now for traders comes in at 106.93. The 61.8% retracement of the move up from last week's low comes in at 106.991. That area (between 106.93 and 106.99) can now be seen as resistance if the sellers are to remain in control.