USD/JPY sellers in near-term control but lack conviction for further push lower

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | usdjpy

USD/JPY fell back below its key hourly moving averages yesterday

USD/JPY H1 19-11
ForexLive
The pair made a move higher yesterday above 109.00 before falling off after a report that US-China trade talks appear to be in a pessimistic mood.

The fall saw price break through the 200-hour MA (blue line) as well as the 100-hour MA (red line), thus putting sellers back in near-term control for now.

The downside move since then stalled around 108.50 as buyers maintained support around the region but also as there has been no follow-up to the above headline.

And that is keeping sellers at bay for now, with the lack of a fundamental push preventing them from finding further conviction to drive price lower.

If anything else, the near-term price action in USD/JPY sort of epitomises the overall risk mood in markets with traders staying more cautious/defensive but holding out some hope that US-China trade talks could still lead to a "Phase One" deal.

It's a tough period to trade the pair right now as any firm moves are subject to trade headlines that could appear at any time. It is more of a gamble as to what headline may pop up next but ultimately the more that price is trapped in a narrow price range, the bigger the next potential key move will be.

It is a question of waiting for the next key headline to come about and I reckon it may require more official communication for that to happen.

Otherwise, price may center around the key hourly moving averages with buyers holding out hope to try and move back above them towards 109.00 while sellers are keeping some pessimism in trying to drive price below 108.50 towards the 108.00 handle.

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