The low today stalled at the swing lows from August 126, August 17, and September 15

The USDJPY moved lower in the early Asian session and in the process stalled at the 109.113 level.

The low today stalled at the swing lows from August 126, August 17, and September 15

What is the significance of that?

Go back to August 16 and the low was 109.098. On August 17, the low was 109.111 fast-forward to September 15 and the low was 109.106. With today's low at 109.113 that is for swing lows within 1.5 pips above and below the 109.11 level. The holding of the level, led to buyers reentering (sellers turned the buyers) and a move higher.

That run to the upside has taken the price to within a few pips of the 100 hour moving average at 109.621. The swing highs today reached 109.599 and 109.61 respectively. The current price trade at 109.58 just below those highs and the moving average level.

Just above the 100 hour moving average sits the 200 hour moving average at 109.683, and above that the 100 day moving average at 109.846.

Those three targets need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. Get above and stay above would have traders looking toward the high from last Friday at 110.077 and the swing highs from last week near the 110.15 level (a swing area comes in between 110.135 and 110.154.

The USDJPY is one of those hybrid currency pairs (vs the USD). In times of stress particularly in the stock market, the JPY can become a safe haven currency. That could see the pair move lower (USD lower) even if the overall dollar trend (vs other currencies) might be higher.

The low this year was reached in January down at 102.58 (on January 6 - see daily chart below), and the pair trended higher into the end of March reaching just below the 111.00 level.

After a corrective move lower in April (see daily chart), the pair moved to the high for the year at 111.653 in early July. Since then, the pair has been trading in a relatively narrow range between 111.653 on the topside, and 108.715 on the downside (that range has been compressed over the last 29 days between those extremes). The price has moved above and below its 100 day moving average since July, as traders ponder the next shove.

USDJPY on the daily chart

Will that shove come today?

The Fed decision and bias along with the stock market reaction will be the close for market traders fundamentally. The price action versus the technicals will be the clue as to the interpretation of the fundamentals. Those clues will come from the hourly chart and the technical levels outlined above.