100 hour MA at 106.77
THe USDJPY moved higher earlier in the New York session with increased buying in stocks shortly after the opening. The move took the price toward a swing high from Friday's trading at 107.073. In the process the price moved above a swing area at 106.96-988 and the 38.2% retracement at 107.012.
However, momentum could not be sustained. The price has rotated back to the downside and currently trades near its 100 hour moving average at 106.77 and a trendline connecting lows from yesterday to lows from today at 106.73.
A move below the 106.73 level should solicit more selling, but with the day coming to a close, liquidity conditions may simply not be there to solicit much of a momentum break.
What we do know however, is that the run higher today ran it's in some topside resistance ahead of its 200 hour moving average. On Friday and Thursday last week, that moving average is broken only to reverse lower shortly thereafter. Today traders and give a break higher a chance. Sellers more in control.
We also know if the price is stalling here near its 100 hour moving average, sellers will need to take control and push the price with momentum below the level. In addition to fails above the 200 hour moving average, there have been plenty of fails on breaks below its 100 hour moving average as well. Buyers can also point to higher lows over the last few days since bottoming on Wednesday (Thursday, Friday and today's lows were higher).