QUESTION: What key currency level is being tested for the first time since October 2014?
ANSWER: The 100 week MA in the GBPUSD
In the run to the highs today in the GBPUSD, the pair has now moved above the topside trend lines on the hourly chart. Those levels are now close risk for longs. Stay above, and the buyers are in control. Move below and we could see some back filling from the trend move higher today. The trend lines currently come in at 1.3381 and 1.3366. Both are moving higher.
The break of those trend lines, opens the door for a test of the June, July and September highs at 1.34449, 1.3479 and 1.35320. Those are the swing highs post the June 2016 Brexit (see weekly chart below).
Also of importance before those levels is the 100 week MA (blue line the chart below). That MA on my chart comes in 1.33962. The high price just extended up to 1.3403. The price has rotated back below the level, but only by a few pips.
The word-for-word comments from Carney were pretty hawkish (see post here). The surge did stall near highs on the hourly earlier in the day. However, the price has now moved above those levels. That is more bullish.
With the pair retracing the bigger move lower, there will be targets to get to and through. Where it stops, no one knows, but what we do know is that if technical levels are broken on the topside - and remain broken - the price can go for the next target and the next target and the next target. If those broken targets fail or stall the rally, it does raise a red flag for the bulls, and that might lead to a correction back lower. What is more bullish though is that the BOE fundamentally, are more supportive of the currency, and we are seeing that in the price action today.