Pound reaction modest in the aftermath of weaker inflation data, for now at least..

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | gbpusd

Cable moves below the 1.3000 handle to a session low of 1.2986

GBP/USD H1 15-01
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But price is keeping sticky around 1.2990-00 for the time being despite sellers keeping near-term momentum by driving price below the 100-hour MA (red line) earlier today.

In any case, now we can see why BOE policymakers have been so dovish and Saunders' comments about low inflation risk earlier today couldn't be more fitting.

Odds of a 25 bps rate cut this month has moved up to ~57% but the pound reaction has been modest with price slipping by just about 20 pips on the weaker inflation data.

As things stand, the risk to any downside move can be defined and limited by the key hourly moving averages above as the bad news continue to pile in for the pound.

But any downside move is also still left wanting, more so when you look at the lack of enthusiasm over the past twenty minutes.

That said, just be mindful that there are large expiries in cable around 1.2960-70 (£1.2 billion) and 1.3000 (£841 million) rolling off today. Perhaps that is what is helping to keep the pair afloat, so just be wary of any extension in price action after they roll off.

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