The August the low came in at 0.71057
The AUDUSD fell to a low on Friday of 0.71068. That was just above the August 20 low of 0.71057.
Today the low could only get to 0.71116.
So traders had two shots to take out the 2021 low. They couldn't get to it, nor through it. Buyers leaned (with stops likely on a break).
The current price is trading at 0.71277.
Drilling to the 100 hour MA, although support is holding, the upside is also limited and the technicals are still more negative.
Specifically, the price has remained below its 100 hour moving average since November 16. That moving average currently comes in at 0.71745 (and moving lower).
The high price today did move above the swing low from Friday's trade at 0.71560, but only to 0.71589 before moving back to the downside.
Getting above 0.71560 would be step one on a corrective build to the upside. After that comes the falling 100 hour moving average at 0.71736, and the falling 200 hour moving average at 0.72138 (blue and green lines).
Highlighting the bearish bias is the fact that the last time the price traded above its 200 hour moving average was back on November 2. That is a long time without even a failed corrective move above that MA level.
Needless to say the failure to get above the 100 MA (and 200 hour MA), is indicative of a market where the sellers are more in control. Until each can be broken, the sellers are winning and more in control.