Bitcoin continues to surprise as it remains resilient to many headwinds. Yesterday we even saw a big rally after some banking woes, which resembled the bullish reaction following the regional banking crisis seen in March. Looks like Bitcoin is the go-to asset in case we see more troubles in the banking sector. Anyway, the price action remains choppy amid different drivers, so the technicals remain the only way to play it.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin yesterday has rallied above the support turned resistance and it’s now eyeing the 31K high. We already saw a fakeout previously, so the buyers will need to be careful here and manage well risk. Another fakeout should give the sellers more conviction and take the price back to the 28475 level if not lower.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a rejection right from the previous fakeout high, so the level to watch now will be the 29500 support as a break below it should lead to a selloff into the 28475 level. The buyers will need the price to break above the 30K level to have more conviction and pile in for a ride towards the 31K high.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline that is providing some support for the buyers. This is where the buyers may start to pile in for another try for a break higher. As previously mentioned, a break below the 29500 level would be ominous for the buyers and most likely lead to more selling pressure.
Upcoming Events
This week the main events will be the US CPI and Jobless Claims reports tomorrow. For the US CPI, the market is likely to focus more on the Core readings as this is what the Fed is more interested in. Higher than expected data may lead to a risk off sentiment as the market should start to price in a more hawkish Fed and it might weigh on Bitcoin as well. On the other hand, lower than expected readings may lead to a risk on sentiment due to the soft-landing narrative and no more rate hikes and support the cryptocurrency. At the same time of the US CPI data, we will also see the latest US Jobless Claims report, which might have an even bigger effect if the data shows a big surprise. In fact, a miss may cause recessionary fears and lead to a selloff in Bitcoin, while a beat may be taken as bad news because the Fed may keep on hiking.
