Ethereum has proven some astonishing resilience in the face of numerous adverse developments, such as regulatory crackdowns and the anticipation of more hawkish interest rates path. Despite these challenges, the cryptocurrency maintains its strength and it’s now looking forward to reach again new highs. It seems that only a recession or a very hawkish Federal Reserve could stop the Ethereum’s rally at this point. However, even if we see a downturn due to either one of these scenarios, we can expect a robust recovery once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that after the bounce on the upward trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, Ethereum started a strong rally that eventually led to a breakout of the downward trendline and even the 1930 swing high resistance. The moving averages have again crossed to the upside and all else being equal we can expect more higher highs going forward.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after the trendline breakout, the price pulled back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and started to rally again. The upside momentum though is clearly fading as Ethereum’s extensions are shallower and the pullbacks more frequent. We can expect the buyers to lean on this 1930 support zone or the trendline to position for another upside move, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking the trendline to the downside to pile in and target the 1681 support.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg to the upside diverged with the MACD. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we should see the buyers waiting at the trendline and the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels with a defined risk below the trendline to target the 2100 high. The sellers, on the other hand, are likely to wait for a break below the trendline to pile in and target the 1681 support.
Upcoming Events
Over the coming days, we will have some significant economic indicators, including the US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI tomorrow, followed by the highly anticipated US NFP report on Friday, which stands as the week's main event. If the data shows strength, it is likely to result in a more hawkish pricing on interest rates, potentially pressuring Ethereum. Conversely, if the readings turn out to be negative, the cryptocurrency may get some support as the market should repricing expectations on a more dovish side.
