The EURUSD extended to a new multi-decade low in the Asian session taking out the low from yesterday by a few pips and reaching 0.98065. The inability to extend further (the low price yesterday reached 0.98118 so the break was only 5/6 pips) on the break to new cycle lows gave the buyers a reason to push higher. The USDJPY moved to the downside certainly helped to drag down the dollar against the other currencies. As a result the EURUSD saw his price moved to the upside.
In the process, the pair moved up to test its 38.2% retracement near the 0.9900 level, and also move within a swing area between 0.9899 at 0.9913. The high price extended to 0.99068, but reversed back to the downside.
Coming into the New York session, the price was trying to re-base against the September 6 low at 0.98633 in early trading. However, US yields started to move back to the upside over the last few hours, and that pushed the buyers back into the USD, and the old low was rebroken with momentum to the downside.
The price low just reached 0.98115 (basically the low price from yesterday's trade). The current price trades at 0.98197 as traders are leaning against the low from today in the low from yesterday, with stops likely on a break below. Traders in the short term could give it a shot, but know that the buyers did have their shot. They missed. The 0.9841 is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The 100 bar MA is at 0.98589. Those would be upside targets IF the buyers can continue to hold support at the lows.
On the downside, looking at the weekly chart below there not a whole lot of support until the price reaches the 0.9662 – 0.9708 swing low areas going back to August to October of 2002.
Sellers are in control.