The EURUSD fell during the Lagarde presser and in doing so, moved back into the Red Box where most of the price action had taken place over the previous eight trading days. Yesterday recall, that after the FOMC rate decision, the price broke out to the upside of the "Red Box" (see chart above) and extended up to a high of 1.10308 before stalling.
The ECB hike did nothing to attract buyers. Market participants seemed to discount the "hawkish" rhetoric from Lagarde (lack of credibility perhaps) and sold into her comments.
The fall lower took the pair down to the near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above) around 1.0889 to 10892. The low price reach just below that area at 1.08855 before rotating back to the upside. Although the moving averages were broken, momentum slowed and the sellers turned to buyers.
On the move back to the upside, the price is moving back to - and now above - the January highs of 1.09285. Above are swing levels from March and April 2022 that come between 1.0935 and 1.0943 (not shown). Getting back above those levels would once again open the door for the buyers to try and take back more control.
If the price can stay below the 1.0943, the sellers are still in play.
