The press conference from ECBs Lagarde got progressively more bearish as concerns about debt crisis between the have's and have not's is weighing on the euro area (see Adam's excellent post here).
Technically, that manifested itself through a EURUSD move back below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and back toward the lower extremes of the up and down trading range since May 23. On that day back in May, the price moved above a higher extreme between 1.0633 and 1.0641. Since then, the price retested that swing area on May 25, tested and briefly broke below it on June 1 before reestablishing support against the area.
A move below would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement at 1.06189. That is of the move up from the May 13 low. The move below the swing area last week could not get to that retracement level. Disappointment led to a sharp move back to the upside as a result.
The low price just reached 1.06444 and bounced as dip buyers stepped in with risk defined and risk limited against the lower extremes. The current price is trading at 1.0662. There is some resistance at 1.0678.
The buyers had the shot today on the move to the upside shortly after the rate decision. That took the price above the higher swing area between 1.0748 and 1.07637. However momentum could not take the price through the May 30 high at 1.0786.
The sellers in the making a play at the lower extreme. At some point the price will him break outside of the red box and there should be momentum in the direction of the break. Watch the levels for clues.
