Focusing on the daily chart of the EURUSD , the sharp move to the upside today has taken the price above a downward sloping trendline on the daily chart near the 0.9943 level. Just above that is also the July 14 low at 0.99515.
Recall, the market was moving sharply to the downside in July and cracked below the parity level in the process. The low price -off that break - extended to that level at 0.99515 and bounced. The next month or so saw corrective action back to the upside (to a high of 1.03678).
Admittedly in August and September the price traded above and below that 0.99515 level (and parity level as well), before moving to the cycle low of 0.95352 on September 28.
In early October, the price of the EURUSD extended above the July low level again, but found willing sellers near the parity level (the high price reached 0.9999) before rotating back to the downside the very next day (on October 5).
Today, moving back above the 0.99515 level will have traders targeting the parity level once again. The high price has reached 0.99761 so far. The current price trades at 0.9956. That's just above the 0.99515 level.
Close risk is a move below the 0.99515 level. Move below those levels could see buyers disappointment start to enter.into the market on the failed break.
