The EURUSD is moving to a new session high after the weaker than expected ADP report. The pair is back above the 1.0900 level. The high price for Monday reached 1.09087. The high price from last week extended up to 1.09288 surpassing the January 23 high price by a couple pips only to fail and rotate back to the downside.
Those highs if broken would take the pair to the highest level since April 21. In March and April 2022 there was a swing area between 1.0935 and 1.0943. The high prices this year have approached those levels only to fall short and rotate back to the downside. Sellers leaned. A move above that area should lead to further upside momentum (see daily chart below).
In trading today, the price extended back above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 200 hour moving average currently comes in at 1.0873. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.08683. Those moving averages will be barometers for buyers and sellers in trading today (and through the Fed decision at 2 PM ET). Stay above would be more bullish. Move back below would tilt the bias back to the downside. A move below would have traders looking toward the bottom of the 'newer' Red Box which has confined the up-and-down price action mostly between 1.08345 and 1.09288 over the last eight trading days.
Admittedly there was a break below yesterday, but the selling found support buyers against another swing area going back to the lower Red Box which confined the pair earlier in January between 1.0758 and 1.0873.
For now, the buyers are more in control of the 100 and 200 hour moving averages with an eye toward the upper end of the January range as the next key target to get to and through.
