EURUSD races higher and looks toward the swing area/50%


is the biggest beneficiary on the hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine with the EURUSD now up 1.28% on the day.

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair moved above its 200 hour moving average in the London morning session after first testing that level and finding sellers (see green line in the chart above). The move above was rewarded with the peace dividend from the comments from Russian officials that progress is being made in their talks with Ukraine.

That news has led to a further run to the upside. The 38.2% retracement of the range since the February 10 high was broken at 1.10684. Other swing levels of also been taken out along the way.

The price just moved above the March 10 swing high at 1.11207 and now looks toward a swing area between 1.11369 and 1.11438 (see red numbered circles and yellow area). Above that is the 50% midpoint of the move down from the February 10 high which comes in at 1.11497.

Move above the 50% and the bias continues to swing more in the favor of the buyers after days of up and down price action had the pair trading above and below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines).

Drilling to the five minute chart below, the move to the upside has seen to trend likes to the upside. The first leg moved up to 1.1057 and corrected modestly to 1.1031. The second leg saw the price run up to 1.1128. Traders will be watching the 38.2% retracement at 1.1091 and 50% of 1.1079. Move below that swing area and there could be some concerns about the trend like move. It doesn't erased the positive from the break above the 200 hour moving average, but it neutralizes that the trend like move a bit.

EURUSD on the 5 minute chart

There are reports from CNN just coming out now that notes Russia is withdrawing forces from Kyiv. Good news.

The face to face talks are now over but will continue later over video. There will be no talks tomorrow.

US stocks remain higher in premarket trading:

European shares are also enjoying even stronger gains with the

  • German DAX, +3%
  • France's CAC +3.3%
  • UK's FTSE 100 +1.2%
  • Spain's Ibex +2.9%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB +3.0%

In other markets:

  • Gold is now trading back below the $1900 level at $1896.10 down $25.44 or -1.31%
  • WTI crude oil is trading at $120 down $5.73 or -5.44%.