The EURUSD continued the move higher yesterday and in the process extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 2021 high. That level comes in at 1.14616. However, the price waffled above and below that level and could not extend up toward the 100 day moving average at 1.1505 currently. The market traders paused the price rise seen this week.
The pair yesterday also moved above a previous swing low going back to November 11 at 1.14323. The price fell below that level on November 15 and raced to the downside. On the move higher on Wednesday, the price moved above that level and stayed above the level during the Asian session yesterday.
In my post yesterday on the EURUSD, I outlined this price area (from 1.1432 to the 38.2% as support in the chart. Stay above it would be more bullish. Move below would be more bearish.
In trading today, the price has moved down to test that level after the retail sales and import price data. The low price just reached 1.14325.
Once again stay above the level and the buyers remain in firm control with a potential for another run toward the upside (after getting back above the 38.2% retracement level ) . Move below, the area (yellow area in the chart above), and we should expect more corrective price probing to the downside.
For the week, the EURUSD price was able to finally break above the key ceiling (and outside the red box) which has confined the pair since November at 1.13856.
That old ceiling, would be the ultimate risk level for longs looking for more upside, and clearly moving back into that area would not be a good thing for the dip buyers.
What might be a closer risk level on the downside that would hurt the bullish bias?
Drilling to the five minute chart below, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Tuesday low comes in at 1.14174. That would be a target on a break of the 1.14325 level, followed by the 50% and the rising 100 bar MA on that chart at 1.13974. Move below each, and the buyers are not felling all that well despite the breakout. The battle would be more intense between the buyers and sellers.