The EURUSD last week opened the week on Monday and traded to the low for the week on that day. On Tuesday, the price moved above the 100/200 hour MAs which ignited a rally above recent highs and also above the 50% of the range since the February 10 high at 1.11497. However, the run higher stalled and the price reversed lower on Thursday.
The US jobs report on Friday saw the pair move modestly lower, but stall above and below the 200 hour MA (green line).
Today, the price traded above the 200 hour MA in the Asian session, but upside momentum was limited. The price moved back below the 200 hour MA and that move has been a technical catalyst to move lower. The price stayed below the 200 hour MA level and has marched lower over the last 6 or so hours of trading.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price is testing a swing area between 1.0998 and 1.10079. The area is in the middle of an up and down swing area that confined the pair between 1.0899 and 1.1137 (see red box) A move below that area would have traders looking toward another swing area between 1.0957 and 1.09675. Below that, the low from last week at 1.0944 (double bottom), another double bottom at 1.09253 (see blue numbered circles) and the March 11 and March 14 swing lows at 1.0899 are the next targets. .
What would hurt the tilt to the downside bias?
A move back above the 200 hour MA would hurt the break. Just like on Tuesday of last week, when the buyers pushed above the 200 hour MA and pushed higher, the sellers below the 200 hour MA today, give them the upper hand. Stay below keeps the sellers in more control in what remains an up and down market.
