The EURUSD is trading above it's 100 day MA near 1.0042. The price broke above and traded to a high of 1.00676. The next upside target would be the high from October at 1.0093. That high tested the 100 day MA, but could not close above the key MA level. The failure at the time, started the run back to the downside for the pair that culminated in the price stalling at 0.97295 just last Thursday (ahead of the US jobs report on Friday). Since then, the EURUSD has moved up around 340 pips in around 3 trading days..
Close risk is now the 100 day moving average level. Traders - looking for more upside on the break - may give to 1.00338 (the high price from yesterday) as a risk defining level now. Stay above is more bullish.
The last time the EURUSD closed above the 100 day MA was back on February 10, 2022.
On the topside, the high from October is joined by other swing levels up to 1.0121 (see green numbered circles on the chart above) . A move above that level would increase the bullish bias more as sellers turn to buyers above key technical level.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, yesterday, the price bas him him ed against the 200 hour moving average before moving higher, then broke and stayed above the 0.99515 level which was the swing low going back to July 2022. That level in July, was the stopping point after the 1st break of the parity level in 2022.
After the EURUSD ran up to test the 100 day moving average yesterday (got within 10 pips), the corrective move today stalled near a another swing area between 0.99653 and 0.9975 (see red numbered circles in the chart below). The inability to move below that level gave the buyers the go ahead to push to the upside.
Yields moving lower (10 year yield now down 6.1 basis points) has helped the dollar selling in the US session, and has led to the break of the 100 day moving average.
Stocks are also reacting favorably. The S&P is trading at its session highs (up 0.65%). The Dow industrial average is leading the way with a near 1% gain. The NASDAQ index is also up (0.58%).
