GBPUSD back below the last week's highs

The  GBPUSD  GBP/USD The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union. The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union. Read this Term broke to the upside yesterday with the pair moving back above the 200 hour MA with a vengence. The price was also able to extend above its highs from last week between 1.2400 and 1.24103. Getting above those levels gave the buyers fuel for a run toward the 1.2500 level. The high price yesterday reached 1.2498. Today, the Asian session high extended to 1.2500.

Looking at the hourly chart, the trend move to the downside which started in earnest on April 21 has the 38.2% retracement 1.25116. The high price today stalled 11 pips short of that target level.

Higher  inflation  Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market. Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market. Read this Term and Brexit concerns have helped to push the GBPUSD back to the downside. The European session low moved back below the swing highs from last week (between 1.2400 and 1.2410). However there has been more up and down trading into the New York session. The high price of the low has reached 1.2435.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out above and below the aforementioned highs from last week. The current price trades at 1.2407.

The best case scenario for the "break" buyers from yesterday would've been to hold the support against 1.2400-1.2410 area. That has not happened. There has been a chink in the armor of the bullish run. However, sellers are finding some stall as well.

Traders will continue to watch the 1.2400 – 1.2410 area as a potential intraday barometer for bullish and bearish. So far the area has seen choppy trading but traders can still look to the area for bias clues.

If the price is able to move back above the 1.2410 area with more momentum, traders can look for a potential run back toward the 38.2% retracement.

Conversely if the selling starts to intensifying, the enthusiastic buyers from yesterday will become disappointed buyers today, and a move back toward the converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.23128 cannot be ruled out.