The GBPUSD moved above its 200 day moving average for the first time since September 16 during trading yesterday. That moving average comes in at 1.37337. The high price reached 1.37479. The price backed off into the close with the pair closing at 1.3705 yesterday.
Today, the price in the Asian session started to move back to the upside and the price was able to retake the 200 day moving average and moved to a high price 1.3742. However once again, the momentum faded and the price rotated back to the downside.
The last six hourly bars have seen progressively lower levels. A new low for the day was just reached at 1.36754. The USD has seen some buying. JPM Chase's Dimon said that there could be six or seven hikes in 2022 (vs the Feds dot plot showing three and that moving up to 4 more recently).
The move to the downside is now highlighted by the failure above the 200 day moving average.
Staying on the daily chart, watch the 1.3662 to 1.36787 area as a level to get to and through (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the daily chart above). Move below that level and sellers would have more confidence.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the lower end of that swing area on the daily chart is being approached by the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.36592 (and moving higher). Moving below that level would next target 1.36188 (a high and then swing low from Tuesday and Wednesday's trade), and below that 1.36188, and the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.36026. That 200 hour moving averages also near swing highs from January 5, January 7, January 10, and January 11 (see blue numbered circles).
Moving below all those levels would give the sellers more confidence and increase the bearish bias. Conversely holding support (especially near the 100 hour moving average), would keep the buyers more firmly in control.
So although sellers are making a play, away from the 200 day moving average, they still have work to do to make them more comfortable and give them more technical control.
