GBPUSD falls back away from converged hourly moving averages

The GBPUSD retraced Wednesday's decline yesterday and in doing so move back up toward the 100/200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above).

Recall on both Tuesday and Wednesday, the price tested the 200 hour moving average before falling below that level on Wednesday and racing to the downside. The subsequent price decline will made it to and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 13 low at 1.24705, but could not sustain the momentum. Yesterday, the price bottom near the 38.2% level and moved back higher. The high price stalled right near the higher 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). Technical levels were est. between the 38.2% retracement and the hourly moving averages.

In trading in the Asian session and early European session today, the price waffled up and down (it was a holiday in London once again), but did a good job respecting the moving averages as resistance on the topside.

The price drifted lower into the jobs report and fell to a low of 1.25197 soon after the release. There was a swing low yesterday at 1.2524. That was also a swing high going back to May 19 and other swing levels between May 24 and May 25. That level is a key level for bias in the short-term.

If the price is to move lower in the GBPUSD GBP/USD The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a Read this Term, getting back below the 1.2524 level (and the low for the day at 1.25197), would open the door for more selling with 1.2500 and the 38.2% retracement 1.24705 as downside targets

The price has since rebounded off the 1.2524 area, and currently trades at 1.25476. That takes the price more toward the middle of the range between the moving averages above, and the support level Support Level A trading support or support level represents a given price that acts as a temporary barrier for an asset. In particular, this level ensures an asset’s price will not fall below it or will encounter difficulty in doing so.All assets can utilize supports, be it forex, equities, commodities, etc. A given asset's support level is created by buyers that enter the market whenever the asset falls to a lower price. Basic support levels can be calculated and charted by identifying the lowest lows for a A trading support or support level represents a given price that acts as a temporary barrier for an asset. In particular, this level ensures an asset’s price will not fall below it or will encounter difficulty in doing so.All assets can utilize supports, be it forex, equities, commodities, etc. A given asset's support level is created by buyers that enter the market whenever the asset falls to a lower price. Basic support levels can be calculated and charted by identifying the lowest lows for a Read this Term at 1.2524.

What now?

Holding the 100 and 200 hour moving averages after trading above them into the early part of the week, and then using them as resistance from Wednesday, tilts the bias marginally to the downside in the short-term.

Conversely, the sellers had the shot to break below the 38.2% retracement level was on Wednesday and yesterday, but could not muster the momentum to the downside, and the 1.2424 area still needs to be broken with momentum intraday

So anything can happen, but the good news is the levels are defined and the traders are respecting them. Use that knowledge to control and limit risk and define the bias going forward should be the plan. if you have a preferred bias overall for the currency pair, all the better. .