The GBPUSD has seen a break and move above its 38.2% retracement of the last trend move down which started on April 21. That level comes in at 1.25116. Recall from last Thursday the price briefly moved above that level, but could not sustain momentum and rotated back to the downside.
Friday's trade was largely up and down sideways with a very modest trading range. The price high on Friday stayed below the 1.2500 level as well. That put a ceiling on the pair, but the low price stayed well above the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). Last Thursday, the price tested that 100 hour moving average and bounced off of the level keeping the buyers in play and more in control.
In trading today, the Asian session saw a push back above the 1.2500 level and the aforementioned 38.2% retracement at 1.25116. That opened the door for further upside momentum. The high price has so far reached the natural resistance at 1.2600 (high price 1.26002).
Getting above that level would next target the swing area between 1.26145, and 1.26373 (swing highs from April 29 and May 4/5). Within that swing area sits the 50% midpoint of the same move down from the April 21 high.
Break above that level opens the door for further upside momentum.
At the 10:15 AM (about 5 minutes from now), BOE's Bailey (neutral) will be speaking on a panel with ECB Holzman (Hawk) and Nagel (hawk)
